Bitcoin markets fell over -7% in the past day amidst a broader fallout in crypto markets and a surge in the Dollar Index (DXY), data from multiple sources shows.

However, on-chain data from analytics tool Glassnode showed buyers were stacking sats and sending newly-bought Bitcoin to long-term wallet holdings instead of selling the asset outright (this could, however, be exchanges sending their holdings to cold wallets instead of active traders/investors).

“215,331 Bitcoin moved to strong HODLers wallets yesterday. This is the 3-year ATH. Interesting,” noted Leo Moskovski, CIO at crypto fund Moskovski Capital. 

As the below image shows, Bitcoin dropped to as low as $50,393 yesterday before finding a support level at the $51,400 price range and recovering to over $53,000 by press time. The asset still trades below its 34-period moving average—a popular tool used by traders to determine market strength and trend.

Image: TradingView

The Bitcoin expiry

Some in crypto circles attributed the drop to the Bitcoin options ‘expiry’ scheduled for today. Over $6 billion worth of bets on the asset’s prices would go void today, leading to a more volatile trading session in the past few days.

“This Friday $6 billion in options contracts are set to expire,” noted Glassnode co-founders Yann Allemann and Jan Happel on Twitter. However, they added that traders were betting on higher Bitcoin prices in April—expecting the market to bounce and surge upwards:

“Bitcoin price expectations for April are high with lots of investors placing their new bets on $80k.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Reserve Risk indicator—a tool that calculates the number of long-term holders at various price levels—suggested that despite the price drop, the overall market had not ‘peaked.’

The current level is slightly over 0.008 while the previous market ‘tops’ recorded a level of over 0.02 and above, meaning the current risk/reward ratio to ‘invest and hodl’ was more favorable compared to previous cycles.

And with Bitcoin surging to $53,000 since Thursday’s drop, some are likely investing and ‘hodling.’

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