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All throughout 2020 the narrative driving Bitcoin price appreciation was that it would be the best hedge against inflation. Two years later, inflation running hot has destroyed financial markets, and it brought the ROI of BTC when adjusted for inflation to a mere zero percent.

Bitcoin ROI Adjusted For Inflation Hits Zero

The 2020 bull market in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies really began to take off when billionaire trader and philanthropist Paul Tudor Jones likened Bitcoin to gold in the 1970s – the last time inflation pushed well past the 2% Fed target level.

Jones claimed that BTC, due to its scarce 21 million coin supply, would be the “fastest horse in the race against inflation.” More than two years following the quote, Bitcoin is trading at a level that when adjusted for inflation, makes the ROI 0% since the beginning of the 2018 bear market.

real bitcoin price

Real Bitcoin price adjusted for US CPI since January 2018 | Source: Timothy Peterson, CFA, CAIA

In a new chart shared by Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Timothy Peterson of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, the price per BTC when adjusted for United States CPI data, results in no returns whatsoever after holding the top cryptocurrency for more than four years – going on five.

As for why Bitcoin has failed so miserably as an inflation hedge, it remains a high-beta asset and was the first to be dumped when risk returned to macro and the money supply decreased. Gold, the standard in inflation hedges has also failed to perform during the strongest inflation in more than 40 years.

When Will The Crypto Market Bottom?

Peterson also has a custom model for picking Bitcoin bottoms, which points to a floor at roughly $12,000. But the crypto market will need to stay in that range for roughly 200 days before the 200-day moving average triggers a buy signal when it crosses through mining difficulty value.

The hash ribbons, another technical and on-chain hybrid indicator that also rely on Bitcoin difficulty for its data, for the first time ever failed to produce any meaningful upside between its last buy signal and the most recent capitulation phase.

BTCUSD_2022-11-29_14-54-11

The previous hash ribbon buy signal failed to produce ROI | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Prior to this anomaly, the hash ribbons were considered the cryptocurrency’s most profitable buy signal ever. Bitcoin hash rate continues to dive as miners capitulate and sell coins at a loss. While the event is largely negative for near-term price action, ultimately it could purge the network of weak miners and make way for the next bull market.

Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.

Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Tony Spilotro


Tony Spilotro

I’m Tony Spilotro. Behind the pseudonym, I’m a digital media executive and global remote work leader with a decade of content experience and excellence. Here, I explore my newfound passions pertaining to privacy, finance, economics, politics, cryptography, property rights, and other libertarian-esque views.
I am a Bitcoin evangelist, maximalist, and educator whenever I can be, helping to spread its message of freedom from government control, monetary policy mismanagement, and passing the buck – literally – to future generations.
My journey from a curious retail crypto investor to a serious Bitcoin advocate, trader, and technical analyst is an unusual one, but life-changing nonetheless and has become less about money and more about a long-overdue revolution.
While a firm believer in the laws governing math and science, I am profoundly fascinated by the impact of astrology and astronomy including moon and solar cycles and planetary alignment and their ability to influence and potentially predict markets. It hasn’t yet clicked for me as to how to put anything to use, but I consider it my current rabbit hole I can’t yet dig out of.
My perspective of growing up alongside the internet, the dot com era, the Great Recession, and roots in video games collecting coins and rare items caused Bitcoin to immediately make sense to me.
Through all of these lenses, I seek to produce content that is educational and entertaining, and I thank you sincerely for taking the time to read what I have to say.
Please follow me on Twitter and feel free to drop me a line if you would like to work together.

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